'Not Very Much Land' West Of Phoenix: Economist

The Glendale Star reports on an economist's view of the housing market. "Although other Arizona economic analysts are forecasting that 45,000 housing units per year would continue in the next decade, Elliott Pollack predicts we will see 55,000 per year being built in that time period. 'People like it here,' Pollack said. 'Housing, even now, is still affordable.'" "Although housing prices in the Phoenix area have been flat over the last six months, the second-home market is still very strong. The listing price average with the MLS was $335,000 in 2005; it is $325,000 today. Pollack foresees housing prices staying relatively flat over the next two years. 'Builders are going to be cutting (prices) to be competitive,' he said." "Vacancy rates in apartments are at 5 percent and the reason for this is because many are being converted to condominiums. Rents are lower now than they were in 2000, but that will change, Pollack said. Rents will be going up." "Peoria's Lake Pleasant area growth will be inhibited by the great areas of state land, Pollack said. Although there appears to be lots of land on the west side, Pollack said if you take out the government land and washes, there is not very much land, 'and that's important.' He was not optimistic in the short term about land prices. 'These things historically have not done well,' he said. 'In the long run, land you own will be more valuable.'" "Workforce housing looks grim, in Pollack's estimation. 'Fifty to 60 percent of median income is in trouble,' he said. 'For people on the lower end of the service industry, they've got problems.' What would benefit West Valley communities is a tax base to take care of community needs."