Monday, October 17, 2005

A Tough Decision In New Jersey

This story from New Jersey shows how a home price boom is a financial dead-end. It's titled, 'Leave N.J., or go deep into debt? Taxes, high costs squeeze middle class.' "The FDIC reported that 20 percent of all mortgages in New Jersey last year were interest-only loans, compared with 15 percent in New York and 11 percent in Pennsylvania. But some local mortgage brokers said that volume has grown this year." "(Broker) Jim Brown in Spring Lake Heights, for example, said 60 percent of his mortgages are interest only. 'It takes $80,000 to $100,000 (in) income to purchase a home, provided they don't have a lot of debt going into the home,' Brown said. 'Kids are having trouble staying in the same hometown as their parents because there's nothing affordable.'" "'The concern is whether home buyers trading up will be able to afford the current price structure that current baby boomers are going to vacate,' said Jeffrey Otteau." "What would happen to home prices if interest rates go up and income growth continues to lag? For one, residents with interest-only financing won't be able to afford their mortgages, raising the specter of foreclosure. 'If you want, you can paint a bleak picture from that,' Otteau said." "'We're so atypical around here, it's not even funny,' said (mortgage broker) Drew Anlas in Brick. Not long ago, condominiums were less than $100,000, and only homes with waterfront views were more than $1 million. Not anymore, he said. 'The average loan size in the last 10 years has more than doubled. People are borrowing a lot more than they used to,' Anlas said. 'We've created a monster.'"

8 comments:

  1. I couldn't get to this article yesterday because it is very detailed. It looks like the opposite of the CA migration, especially because of the high property taxes.

    Not many reports come out on NJ, so hopefully readers familiar with the situation can help us out.

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  2. New Jersey is truly a bubble state. Incomes in no way justify the prices. Couple that with high taxes and terrible traffic, it makes you wonder what keeps people here. If not for family, I would have been long gone. Most people I know, even those who bought 7 years ago, are really struggling with the cost of living. The state is a disaster waiting to happen.

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  3. Grouchy mood today -

    Aside from housing prices crashing (hopefully), unfortunately nothing will change for the middle class. Especially since you need to make a shit-load of money now to live a middle class lifestyle: i.e. own a SFH in a safe are, have kids, be able to pay for or help with said kid's college, live within 20 miles of work, and decent medical coverage.

    Nothing will change because:

    Hippies blame us for the world's ills, with the middle class lifestyle being equated with over-consumption.

    Retired folks "have got there's, and earned every cent of it by god"

    Pro-tax liberals will lump us with 'the rich'

    Anti-tax republicans will lump us with the 'the poor'

    yadda-yadda-yadda

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  4. Northern NJ Real Estate Bubble

    Yes, there is a bubble over on this coast too. It's not just NYC, it's most of Northern NY, NYC Metro, CT, etc.

    While our median income is high, so are our taxes, as well as every day expenses (are we still the most expensive car insurance state in the country? I am paying 2500 for two cars, clean record, married, etc).

    Essex County is a killer for property taxes.. I have been shopping Montclair and Glen Ridge for a while now, a nice home will set you back at least 15,000 a year. A million dollar plus mansion will run somewhere around 35-40,000 in taxes. I know for a fact many of the estate homes in upper montclair are paying at least 75k in property tax.

    Wage growth has been stagnant here for at least 4 years now. It seems time stopped since the tech bubble crash. High-tech job creation just doesn't exist anymore. Jobs are leaving this area, and leaving fast.

    Speculation runs rampant here, it's just as bad at LA, or San Fran. Everybody and their mother thinks they are real estate developers. Just about any tiny cape around here gets sold for 500k and gets turned into a 900k stucco s-box.

    grim

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  5. Northern NJ has historically been categorized as a very expensive place to live..

    Bergen-Passaic, NJ

    2002 - #2 Forbes Most Overpriced (above California)
    2004 - #2 Forbes Most Overpriced (above California)
    2005 - #6 Forbes Most Overpriced

    grim

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  6. Monmouth County (the most northern part of the Shore) has gotten pretty expensive. Aside from the overall increase in real estate prices everywhere, the northern part of Monmouth County has experienced increased demand because of the high-speed ferries that first appeared in the late 80s.

    Prior to the ferries, it was a good hour and a half commute from Rumson to Wall Street. However, with ferries, the commute was reduced to less than 50 minutes. Needless to say, Wall Street money evenutally found Rumson real estate and prices have been going higher ever since.

    Despite the attraction of Monmouth County, the area has become extremely over priced since at least 2002 and is due for a correction, along with everywhere else.

    http://shorebubble.blogspot.com/

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  7. Lowering property taxes in NJ would push home prices even higher, making it even less affordable for first time buyers. The number one question around here when buying a home is "What are the taxes?" It's probably the only reason prices here haven't gone to California levels..

    I'm sorry, but where does Forrester think the money is coming from? By eliminating government inefficiencies? Come on..

    "The 30%-in-3 plan provides at least a 10% property tax cut in the first year, at least a 20% cut in the second year, and at least a 30% cut in the third year and every year thereafter. In no case would the property tax cut be less than the highest homestead property tax rebate received in last year or the year before"

    I love the 'every year after' part as well. Gee, so for every year that goes by, the closer we get to zero property taxes..

    grim

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