Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Saturday, February 04, 2006
'Where Are The Buyers' In Phoenix?
The Arizona Republic reports on the lack of affordability in Phoenix. "Skyrocketing prices have made Valley resale homes harder to afford than any time since the beginning of the last decade. A key housing index shows that a used home in metro Phoenix has not been so difficult to afford since 1990, even though interest rates have remained fairly stable and incomes are up. That's because prices for resale homes are at record high, though the market has cooled in recent months."
"The new figures have implications for everyone associated with the Valley's real estate market, from agents to owners to businesses worrying if their employees can find a place to live. 'If you are trying to by a home, you have to be careful about what you are doing,' said Jay Butler, head of the ASU real estate center. 'If you are trying to sell this area as a place for a new company, then you may have some serious issues.'"
"But incomes are not growing as quickly as house prices, which are at record levels after a yearlong selling frenzy fueled in part by speculators. The index is based on the value of 100 being the level where a typical buyer can afford a median-priced home at current interest rates and household income. Numbers higher than 100 signify increased affordability and those lower suggest the opposite. The Valley's resale index fell from 114 in 2004 to 84 in 2005. The new-home index dropped from 102 to 80 during that same time."
"Buyers may finally be fed up with the higher prices. Agents say there are more houses on the market than at the peak of the buying binge and the houses are taking longer to sell."
"'I asked another Realtor what he thinks about the real estate market,' said Brett Barry, (an) agent who specializes in the northeast Valley. 'He said, "What real estate market?' I have sellers calling me every day, breathing down my neck, saying, 'Where are the buyers?'"
It seems that if companies are worried about their employees finding places to live, they could simply provide a rental listing service. Those "investor owned" houses should be available for lease in the very near future, if they are not already....
ReplyDeleteTaking 1/2-2/3rds month rent for placing a lease is $1000 in the realtor's pocket. Selling the pig; $10,000 in commissions. Which do you suspect the realtor is pushing?
ReplyDeleteHey bubblebutt:
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting that. I'm been going blue in the face saying that TX is gound zero for mortgage/housing fraud. People say Cali or Fla and I'm sure there's plenty there but look no further than Big D (that's D for "doublecrosser") for the biggest, baddest sleaziest fraud you can find. They say everything's bigger in Texas and that will include the housing bust.
Ben, I got my monthly newsletter from a realtor in Sedona who has been sending it to me for 13 years. So sorry I didn't buy back when I first got it in 1993 but that's history.
ReplyDeleteHe's selling houses for 300K plus in Cornville. Where the hell is Cornville and is that worth 350K plus for houses? Where does one work if one buys an expensive tract house in Cornville? I'm almost afraid to ask!
txchic57,
ReplyDeleteCornville is east of Sedona and Page Springs. Until just a couple of years ago it was the big joke of the area, and then everybody realized that there was big money to be made. It's a perfect example of how a craze can set in. Your right about the job situation. Good jobs are a long drive from Cornville and on crowded roads. It's not just these little rural towns anymore either. There are big subdivisions springing up along I-17, with no real support nearby, ie stores, etc. Much less jobs.
txchic57 said...
ReplyDeleteWhere the hell is Cornville and is that worth 350K plus for houses?
Cornville:
"First called "The Pitchner Place." Post Office and settlement near the mouth of Oak Creek. "At a meeting of Verde Valley pioneers, one of them said it was the intention to name it Cohnville, for a family named Cohn that lived there. When the papers came back from Washington, they had read it Cornville, so the setlers accepted the name." Letter, L.J. Putsch Forest Ranger
Barnes, Will C. Arizona Place Names University of Arizona Press. 1997. P. 111
If I ever get a riproaring case of PMS, I'm going to log onto that SDCIA board and start taking on some of those Texas "investors." Of course, logic and experience means nothing to those people but someone has to do the dirty work.
ReplyDeleteThat should be fun. I can be pretty mean when I need to . . .
mad_tiger said: "For companies trying to attract out-of-area talent it's a tough sell. People usually accept a new position with the expectation of improving their quality of life. If you're a company recruiting a homeowner who may be forced to become a renter if he comes to work for you that could be a problem."
ReplyDeleteMaybe some people feel that way, maybe even most people. But if I were moving to a new job in a new town, I would want to rent while I checked out the neighborhoods and shopped for permanent house. I would also want to make sure that the job lived up to expectations before I took the plunge of buying something.
But maybe that's just me. I don't buy a new car every year either :-)
Cornville...yet another RUINED once lovely rural area in AZ....there are some amazingly beautiful acreages along Oak Creek, but if you manage to find one, prices can be +1Mil....maybe a total of 10 properties that still retain a sense of "oasis in the desert". All the other stuff they're selling is high desert dirt. Like Ben said, long drive to work in the Home Depot or Wal-Mart in Cottonwood...that's about all there is, retail-wise.
ReplyDeleteCatherine,
ReplyDeleteI don't know if you've noticed, but half of the Oak Creek properties are for sale and prices are coming down. Incredibly, one can rent in the canyon for about $800 to $1,000/mo.