Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Saturday, February 04, 2006
What's Your Housing Bubble Exposure?
Several readers want input on where to park their housing cash. "I'm looking for a new bank for my cash. The main thing i'm concerned with is stability in the event of trouble ahead. that and good rates on 6 to 12 month cd's."
"And while we're on the subject, how safe is internet banking (Ing Direct etc). Finally, do you guys like the ibonds?"
A reader responded, "I've used ING direct for about 5 years now, and haven't had any problems with it, yet. But lately with all the bad financial news banging about, I'm getting antsy about having my cash in a digital account. If you want to get it out in a hurry, you're out of luck. It takes at least 2-3 business days to transfer funds from Ing to your local bank, then you gotta hope your local bank's doors are still open for business."
One reader broadened the subject. "I'd like to read about where other readers have their money invested. What the rate and terms are and if it has worked out for them. Did the bank/company give them what was offered, were there any hidden fees, for example to move money in or out, do they know what this bank/company invests in primarily, has anyone discovered something new, has anyone tried something new and did it work out?"
"I'm seeing a lot more offers out there (some pretty good) and lots of them are from unknown banks, so I wanted to get an idea of which are the better more reputable ones
to stick with. Also, if anyone has suggestions ideas for a good mutual fund with respect to sector or class. Such as ‘good to invest in bio-tech or perhaps energy funds’ or ‘good to invest in growth or emerging markets or maybe small cap.’"
Another is curious about housing bubble exposure. "Which institutions are holding GSE-issued or private MBSs and CMOs (asian banks vs. American mutual/retirement funds)? Do asian central banks own more of the stuff, or do Americans (through their mutual/retirement/401K/IRA funds)?"
"While GSE-issued debt is fairly easy to spot on a prospectus/annual report (look for Fannie & Freddie), how can you tell if your mutual fund also owns PRIVATELY-issued MBSs or CMOs?"
This reader had some answers. "Have you used Weiss Ratings for bank safety ratings? Nobody is as conservative as Weiss when it comes to rating financial institutions. He has a much better track record than AM Best, Moody's, Fitches, etc, when it comes to warning subscribers of impending bank failure BEFORE the failure."
"Just last night we got our annual Weiss ratings book in the mail. A number of banks no longer have the A+ rating, probably because they are exposed to local bubbly real estate markets."
"Fortunately Farmer's and Merchants bank, right in Southern California, is one of the best banks in the country, at least by Weiss's standards. Even better, they know about their rating and work hard to maintain it."
"My survival strategy has largely consisted of having a Treasury Direct account wired to my F&M savings account. I won't mess with any Treasury money funds from a mutual fund company that might have to go through a bank that, you get the idea."
Wow, I'm surprised to see many posters here being really tied to USD. If any of you believe the housing bust is going to have more implications than just lower housing prices, then you have to consider precious metals and foreign currency.
ReplyDeleteMy portfolio of USD exposure will dwindle to about 15% by the end of the year. I'm not saying you should take such extremes as I am, but do consider diversifying from USD as a safety measure.
With Bernanke in office now ... be wary.
JA Sunny Outlook:
ReplyDeleteI agree that we do need a tax increase to stop the implosion. Bush thinks he did a good job with his tax rebate/cut program and "improved" the economy. It wasn't from the tax rebate! It all came from the credit bubble. Damn magic M3 machine.
I guess my question with the rates that are being mentioned here is HOW.
ReplyDeleteHow are groups like ING, Emigrant, and others able to pay such high rates on a savings account when most other banks are offering terrible rates on their savings accounts? I've heard the answer claiming that it is because they 'don't have to have locations all over town', but I have a hard time believing that accounts for the wide difference in their rates vs. the much lower rates of more traditional banks.
I had been looking into foreign currency denominated accounts with Everbank as a hedge. It looks like the funds are just rolled into derivatives rather than the actual currency. Not quite what I had in mind. I'd also be curious to know how much exposure they are holding after I looked through some of their mortgage products.
"While GSE-issued debt is fairly easy to spot on a prospectus/annual report (look for Fannie & Freddie), how can you tell if your mutual fund also owns PRIVATELY-issued MBSs or CMOs?"
I'd love to hear a good answer to this question. Anyone?
(Not intended as investment advice.)
Russ,
That TD Waterhouse MM fund's holdings? Yuk! Talk about an implosion waiting to happen.
Rotary13bt,
ReplyDeleteHeh, I'm a little worried about a good sized credit union I'm using in San Diego. I sat on hold with their cs a few weeks ago and the hold messages were all pitching their IO mortgage products.
I have money at First Horizon in Northern Virginia. In early January, I got 4.48% six month CD, but here's the kicker--you can take your money out of the CD at any time, so as rates go up, you can chase them!
ReplyDeletethejdog: Sorry to hear about your Euro ETF. Ouch. I'm spread between six currencies and overall I'm still winning against USD even with the recent strength. However, if USD needlessly rallies more, I could be hurting. I wrote a blog post that I am not moving into Euro until late Feb, and the amount for the position will be modest. UN Sanctions on Iran will be unfavorable.
ReplyDeleteThe great thing with foreign CDs, is that you can use the interest earned as a hedge against USD strength. However, I'm not using this interest padding to state my position above.
jasunnyoutlook:
ReplyDeleteI vote for a tax increase.
Your 1040 allows you to voluntarily send more money. Otherwise, please leave the rest of us out of it.
The problem's never been taxes, just spending. The government exercises absolutely no fiscal discipline.
Regarding credit unions, check out Patelco, I think they might be in just the CA bayarea and Sacrameto though. Also, they do have home loans, not sure on their exposure to that market. Best to call and inquiry before putting $$ there. I had an account with them before, and they were pretty good at the time.
ReplyDeleteRegarding investments in mutual funds I have $$ in both Vanguard energy fund-VGEMX and precious metals fund-VGPMX. I also have $ in Fidelity energy-FSENX and their Gold fund-VSAGX. Both are doing well, and they have low maintance fees which I like.
I like gold and silver mining stocks, they are doing well right now, and I expect them to go higher as the interest rates go up via helicopter Ben. Be prepared for some volatility though, thats the nature of the game with these kinds of stocks - especially right now. I also agree with another poster who said it's a good place to be with the housing bubble about to implode.
If you are going to be exposed to the stock market (IMO, long term it seems wise to do, for at least SOME of your long term assets, my personal allocation is about 50% stocks), you want it to be mostly in index funds.
ReplyDeleteThe management fees are MUCH lower, and the performance is consistent (a lot less variance than actively-traded mutual funds), and most of the gains end up being long-term capital gains.
Additionally, you can very well mimic what many of the actively traded mutual funds do: Start with a broad index fund and then add some small active investment to try to gain an edge, since they are compared against the index.
sleepness near seattle:
ReplyDeleteI shopped around for awhile, and American Precious Metals Exchange had the best prices and the best overall selection (they were only missing one product that I desired). Not to mention you can order online. Half of the other shops want you to call or mail in an order form.
http://www.apmex.com/
To look at the competition, please go to Ben's Money and Metals page (linked from main page), and click through the Google ads to all the dealers. :)