Taking The Ride In The Housing Bubble Boat

More reports on the housing bubble in California. "About one in every 75 residents in the state holds a license to transact sales, according to the California Department of Real Estate. As of November, the total was 471,818 licensed professionals, historically, the average is roughly 300,000, and that tally is believed to have approached 500,000 already this year. 'This is the highest number ever,' confirms Tom Pool of the Depart. of Real Estate. 'Every month we're setting a new record.'" "An increase in interest rates, however, is expected to drive down sales volume in California by about 2 percent this year, according to CAR. 'We are anticipating a shakeout in the industry in the next few years,' says C.A.R. economist Leslie Appleton-Young. 'There just aren't enough homes to sell in California.'" From the LA Times. "David Yates didn't know whether he'd buy this particular boat, which had a list price of $21,000, but he was pretty sure of one thing: He wouldn't be at the Los Angeles Boat Show if not for the housing market. 'We couldn't have afforded to come here before, but now that my house has doubled in value, we have an opportunity to take out a second mortgage,' said the 48-year-old Burbank resident, who is a manager for a cabinet manufacturer. 'At least we're in reach of being able to buy a boat.'" "Though some economists worry that too many people are overextending themselves, the boating industry considers itself lucky that business is humming despite high gasoline prices. 'A lot of people are taking money out of their homes and buying different things, and one of them, fortunately, is boats,' said Dave Geoffroy, executive director of the marine association." "To be sure, some dealers worry that boat sales could fall if real estate values drop, which happened in the early 1990s. 'I'm moderately concerned,' said Michael Basso Jr., (who) sells family boats and has locations in Castaic, Dana Point and Ontario. He noted that half his buyers last year paid in cash, often from money they pulled out of their homes." From the Alameda Times Star. "Inventory has generally increased in the Bay Area from a year ago. Fueled by rising interest rates and more homes on the market, the slowdown in home sales started last spring. The slide has continued for nine months, with December sales down 15.5 percent from a year earlier." "'What I'm finding now is (buyers and sellers) have to take a much closer look at the dynamics and psychology of the local market than during 2003 and 2004 (and early 2005). That's when sellers held the cards,' said Steve Dhillon, a realtor in Fremont. 'There is definitely more negotiation. The buyers don't see the urgency. Pricing has to be very competitive. Now you have to pull out additional things like staging a home.'" "'Buyers are looking for a deal. It does not necessarily mean there are any deals out there,' (agent) David Kerr said." ""A year ago, Cynathya Mouton wouldn't have thought about putting her Union City house on the market, a time when the market was soaring. Now, she is. The reason she is considering selling: The red-hot real estate market of a year ago is cooling off." "'Timing is a factor," said Mouton, 39, who paid $220,000 for her four-bedroom home in 1996. 'I think (the market) has reached its peak. I've taken the ride. I'd like to take what I have. I'm a little bit nervous about what can happen in the next few months.'"