Tuesday, January 24, 2006

A 'New Lexicon' To Describe Falling Prices: RI

The Providence Journal has this update on the Rhode Island housing bubble. "Rhode Island's housing market ended last year with overall prices up, sales down and selling time longer than it's been in five years. The statewide median price of a single-family house in the fourth quarter rose 5.6 percent, to $285,000. That's compared with a 13-percent increase in the median price during the fourth quarter of 2004." "During October, November and December, house prices fell in nine communities: Tiverton, Barrington, Bristol, Johnston, Lincoln, Smithfield, Westerly, Narragansett and East Greenwich." "The market's downshift has forced real-estate agents to adopt a whole new lexicon for describing what is taking place. The housing market is 'tempering' or 'moderating' or 'becoming more balanced.' 'It's not quite as frenetic,' said Bob Del Deo, a real-state agent on the East Side of Providence. 'It's a more rational market.'" "Michele Caprio, president of the Rhode Island Association of Realtors, said, 'Generally, there's been a sort of tempering effect..I'd say the market's moderating.' The market shift has meant that sellers with 'elevated expectations' are getting a dose of 'realism,' the agents say, but, some say, customers aren't getting it soon enough." "'I lost a listing this morning where two other [agents'] prices were higher,' said Peter Ciccone,a real-estate agent in East Greenwich. 'I just said..it's probably gonna sit' on the market. 'And I don't want to get stuck.'" "In East Greenwich, the median price during the fourth quarter fell 15 percent, to $480,000, compared with $565,000 during the same period in 2004. Similarly, in Bristol, the median house price during the quarter fell 10.4 percent, to $326,950, compared with $364,900 during the fourth quarter of 2004." "The market's shift has created a 'communication barrier' between sellers and buyers, said Ron Phipps, a real-estate broker in Warwick. 'I have a significant number of sellers in East Greenwich who got offers in the last quarter and refused them,' he said. 'The buyers were reading national press and saying, 'I can offer 10-percent less than the list.' And the sellers were saying. 'I'm not selling!'" "Ciccone said sellers are 'used to the last five years..If you throw realism at them, they don't necessarily want it. There's nothing wrong with a flat market," added Ciccone, 'it just means we can't have these inflated prices.'"

6 comments:

  1. A 15% drop in YOY median prices. Looks like the bottom is starting to fall out. I would lowball offer them 40-50% off. This is getting interesting!

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  2. There is a lot going on psychologically that hasn't come to the surface yet. I don't know if even Sigmund Freud could sort it out.

    In some cases sellers are either flippers or people who more legitimately bought their homes fairly recently. Psychologically it's extremely difficult to sell a home for less than you paid for it, even when there is a possibility the price could do down further and you could then really be stuck more deeply in the quicksand. There isn't a huge equity gain to be greedy about, but there is certainly that built-in expectation, from years of rising home values, that you should at least come out ahead when you sell.

    For those who have had their homes for many years and have a huge equity gain, their refusal to sell for somewhat less than what they expected does show that greed is part of the equation.

    Either way, it appears to be deadly to financial health when you assume that just because a trend kept occurring in years past you expect it to occur in the future. And a bubble encourages that kind of thinking even more! Amazing how a mania can really screw up one's thinking.

    Beartopia
    South Bay Beaches Housing Bubble

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  3. Mike and all,
    Please warn when you are posting a PDF file in a tinyurl.

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  4. Mike,
    Yeah, just a heads up. PDFs crash some computers.

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  5. tageinn said:
    Maybe for comic relief someone can come up with a Lexicon after this period is over and prices really start to crater.
    Sounds like a hangover to me.

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  6. How 'bout:

    "The market is currently experiencing inverse appreciation"

    "We're seeing retrograde price momentum, but no 'crash'"

    "Sellers are currently experiencing a reality/realty disconnect"

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