Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Monday, January 30, 2006
'Modest Price Declines Nothing To Be Alarmed At'
Inman News reports on two big bubble markets. "Home sales across Virginia and Massachusetts dropped in December from their year-ago levels, while prices continued to increase, according to the Realtor associations in both states. In Virginia, 10,565 transactions closed in December, a 10 percent dip from last December. Massachusetts, single-family home sales dropped 8.8 percent in December from a year ago, marking the fourth straight month of declines."
"Virginia's median existing-home price for December was $180,260, up 6.2 percent from $169,725 for 2004." Uh huh, but checking the Virginia realtors site, one can look up November 2005 and see the median was $197,213.
On to Florida. "Some recent dips in condo prices are nothing to fear, said broker Pam Hoffpauer of Martha A. Gottfried. 'It's not uncommon to have price changes at this time of year. Historically, it's nothing to be alarmed at,' she said. 'Some people may have overpriced their property. Hopefully, they are adjusting them.'"
"Among other recent price changes in condos: a unit at Chilean Ave., down from $895,000 to $845,000; Chilean Ave., $975,000 to $895,000; Palm Beach Towers at Cocoanut Row, $1.49 million down to $1.29 million, $575,000 down to $525,000, and $529,000 to $495,000. At S. Ocean Blvd., seller Richard Colardo paid $599,000 for a 2,131-square-foot three-bedroom unit in June 2004. He recently dropped his asking price from $1.39 million to $1.29 million."
The Baltimore Business Journal. "The Residences in Federal Hill is advertising $10,000-$15,000 toward closing costs, a five-year phase-in on real estate taxes and historic tax credits. PierSide at HarborView off Key Highway is offering 'special pricing for a very limited time' on its waterfront condominiums. And until the end of this month, the Revels at W. Madison St. will contribute $10,000 toward closing costs on its 'luxury units.'"
"Tempting incentives and modest price breaks on condominiums are cropping up throughout downtown Baltimore and in the surrounding neighborhoods. And with more than 2,700 condominiums in the pipeline, some wonder whether demand is deep enough to fill all of those units without significantly slashing prices or doling out incentives. Yet with investors pulling out of the market, the days of the million-dollar asking prices on average units may have ended."
And the Connecticut Post. "After causing an explosion in prices in communities like Milford, the recent housing boom has grown much quieter these days, real estate professionals across the region say. That boom may soon be a distant echo as a buyer's market, recently unthinkable, becomes a possibility after an absence of more than three years. 'There is more inventory on the market, and we expect prices to come down this year," said Wendy Weir, an agent in Milford. 'We're seeing listings expire without being sold and relistings. It will become a buyer's market.'"
"The housing market is also slowing in Fairfield and in the Valley, though less dramatically, agents there said. 'The scuttlebutt in our office is that last fall was as slow as the one after 9-11,' Weir said."
"Many factors are contributing to the leveling-off of the market, the agents said. In the Valley, supply is exceeding demand, especially for higher-priced homes. Milford spent years being a relative value, especially compared to its pricier Fairfield County neighbors, mortgage broker Peter Spaltoff said. The slowdown may just mean that the imbalance has been addressed. 'One of the Villa Rosa Cottages was on the market for $2.2 million and finally sold for $1.7 million,' he said."
"Kathy Alagno, president of the Milford Chamber of Commerce, agreed with Spaltoff that house prices in the city are leveling off because they are now appropriately priced instead of being bargains. 'We prefer to think of it as a correction, instead of as a bubble bursting,' she said."
They are right about one thing; I'm not alarmed at all.
ReplyDeleteTHE "COMMODITY SUPER CYCLE" - HOW LONG CAN IT LAST?
ReplyDeleteTRUE PICTURES OF HOUSING'S CONTRIBUTION TO THE US ECONOMY
ReplyDeleteWhat the TV Talking-heads and Wall Street Economists Wouldn't Show You
Cereal, I love you! I'd been looking at Sacramento-area housing values using the online MLS for that region, which doesn't readily disgorge days on the market. And it's hard to tell because all the streets have the same name. Zip's search shows the original listing date. Some houses have been on the market since August... there isn't a single "new" listing... Zip's comparable sales are all on the next neighborhood over. Whoops! I guess going heavily rental in 2004 killed demand for an entire neighborhood!
ReplyDeleteOoh... it took two clicks to find a house on its second price reduction. Having started at $420,000, it's now down to $399,000. Lessee... $409 to $399... $415 to $395... $395 to $389.. more houses have price reductions than not!
"Kathy Alagno, president of the Milford Chamber of Commerce, agreed with Spaltoff that house prices in the city are leveling off because they are now appropriately priced instead of being bargains. 'We prefer to think of it as a correction, instead of as a bubble bursting,' she said."
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Semantics.
originalcontrarian said:
ReplyDelete"I don't know, we've been looking, going to open houses etc. and to me things seem to be really picking up compared to the fall. Multiple offers, traffic at open houses, etc. But maybe it's just in the 'reasonable' price range."
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Perhaps those are the people who've been pulled back into the "greater fool" camp because they think they've seen a breather in the market.
Perhaps they will provide the fodder for our first deadcat bounce.
The problem for them is that fast rising inventory figures indicate that price declines in some areas could be beginning a multi-year trend.
I can bet that some of my neighbors in the Bay Area could very soon be very alarmed.
ReplyDeleteI don't know, we've been looking, going to open houses etc. and to me things seem to be really picking up compared to the fall. Multiple offers, traffic at open houses, etc. But maybe it's just in the "reasonable" price range.
ReplyDeleteHeresy. My agent is telling me the same thing. Yet he is sending more and more new listings every day.
Anyone can come in here and declare a spring boom.
Give us specific listings.