Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Thursday, January 26, 2006
'A Lot Of Disappointment' In Florida
People in Florida woke up to the housing bubble this morning. "A national cooldown in the housing market made itself felt in Southwest Florida..the weakness was even more pronounced during December, with sales dropping 42 percent in the Sarasota-Bradenton market and 25 percent in Charlotte County-North Port. Meanwhile, listings in the region have been skyrocketing. In the most up-to-date snapshot for Sarasota, for example, there were 5,369 homes on the market. That compares with 3,525 at the end of November."
"Industry insiders blame the shift in the local market in part on the flight of speculators and investors, estimated to have been as much as one-third of real estate players in recent years. Thomas Heimann for one, has got 'lots of new listings.' 'The competition's fierce, and there's a lot of disappointment out there,' Heimann said. 'The investors have completely gone away.'"
"'I see people reducing prices, but typically the prices that were reduced were probably a little high to begin with,' said Carla Stiver in Englewood. 'Last year, sellers could ask any price they wanted, stick a sign up and it'd be sold in days. The builders were only paying Realtors 2 percent commissions for buyers and sticking too many clauses against investors. Now they're paying 4 percent and offering us bonuses.'"
"The median price of existing homes declined to $377,700 in Miami-Dade County in December, down from $381,600 in November. In Broward County, the median price dipped to $369,000, from $391,100. The number of homes sold in December also plunged compared to the year before. Sales were down 41 percent in Broward and 39 percent in Miami-Dade."
"Tom Flood of HomeBanc also noted the market's wobbly performance. 'The market is like a drunk boxer,' he said. 'Prices can't continue to go up or who is going to be able to afford to live here?'"
"The once-blistering Palm Beach County housing market cooled off in December. The number of existing-home sales dipped, and the county's median home price fell to $408,200, from $421,500 in November. The number of homes for sale in Palm Beach County has nearly tripled in the past two years. The Regional MLS now shows 20,399 homes for sale in the county, up from 7,799 two years ago."
"West Palm Beach broker Steve Hollander said the increase in homes for sale has forced him to order more yard signs. 'I'm running out of signs,' Hollander said. 'I've got more listings than I've ever had.'"
"Palm Beach County's public school enrollment dipped to 477 students for the 2005-06 school year, and Hunter thinks escalating home prices are partly to blame. 'I have to infer that's the explanation for the sudden drop,' Brad Hunter said."
"Homeowners are discovering the Space Coast no longer is so much of a sellers' market. 'It seems pretty tough right now,' said Neilyne Laasko, who put her house in Satellite Beach up for sale last week for $399,900. 'It seems like there are a lot of homes on the market, and I don't think that helps.' Housing expert Ingo Winzer said the outlook might not be good for Brevard. After a housing market is about 40 percent overpriced, the risk is fairly high for a market correction, said Winzer."
"Existing home sales in the Naples metropolitan area dropped to 266 in December 2005 from 388 homes in December 2004. 'It was a combination of the continuing bubble press , the whole Chicken Little mentality and the holiday season,' said Bill Barnes, broker in Estero and Fort Myers."
"Fred Stokes just listed his three-bedroom lakefront home in Boca Raton for $439,900, and interest from buyers has been slow so far. He realizes the real estate market has changed. 'The way I look at it is, I live in paradise,' said Stokes, 60, a grandfather of eight who has no immediate plans to cut his asking price. 'If I have patience, I'll eventually make money on the house.'"
West Palm Beach broker Steve Hollander said the increase in homes for sale has forced him to order more yard signs. 'I'm running out of signs,' Hollander said. 'I've got more listings than I've ever had.
ReplyDeleteInvest in the yard signs business before it's too late! Didn't you know? The yard sign market only goes UP! LOL
The housing bubble is beginning to play out before our eyes. I hate to sound like an old man, but taxpayers better not have to pay for this soon to be crisis like they did in the Savings and Loan crisis.
ReplyDeleteAll rational people knew it was bubble. A year from know people better not be crying to the government.
arlingtonVa said...
ReplyDeleteThe housing bubble is beginning to play out before our eyes. I hate to sound like an old man, but taxpayers better not have to pay for this soon to be crisis like they did in the Savings and Loan crisis.
All rational people knew it was bubble. A year from know people better not be crying to the government.
I think the scenario will play out as the herd collectively crying out "I WAS CHEATED!" Call my lawyer. Call the DA's office. I want justice!
Greedy ba$tards.
From the Miami Herald article... Miami's condominium inventory jumped "from roughly 8,400 nine months ago to more than 22,000 today."
ReplyDeleteThat's an impressive jump with an additional 100,000+ units past the permitting phase.
"It was a combination of the continuing bubble press , the whole Chicken Little mentality..."
ReplyDeleteBen; he's talking about you, spoil sport!
This is the first time I have witnessed a housing cycle and it's really amazing to watch. I've noticed one of the changes to the listings ARE ALL THE CAPITALIZED WORDS YELLING AND WITH EXCLAMATION MARKS !!!!
ReplyDelete;)
Curt,
ReplyDeleteMaybe, but I never heard the word 'chicken' used in my economics classes.
Mr. d. wrote....
ReplyDelete"CBO sees deficit at 2.6%"
WRONG.
The CBO estimates that the deficit will hit AT LEAST 2.6%. The CBO further stated that the 2.6% estimate DOES NOT INCLUDE 1)Planned Tax Cuts, 2) Hurricane Katrina Relief, and 3) The War in Iraq.
By comparison, two weeks ago, the White House said the 2006 deficit would top $400 billion because of emergency aid for victims of hurricanes Katrina and Rita. That would be greater than 3% GDP.
Now reflect on the fact that we're running deficits after 3 years of uninterrupted growth. Contrast that with the Reagan years, when the deepest deficits occured during the recession of the early 80's.
Regarding the dollar... let's not forget our record 7% current account deficit.
ReplyDeleteAs Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner said last week, "It would be hard for anyone looking at the size of the U.S. current account deficit to not be worried."
Likewise, the chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, Raghuram Rajan, has recently expressed concern over the risk of a run on the dollar.
...The dollar may not collapse, but it would be foolish to take its current strength for granted.
Prices "went up way too fast," said Beth Barnett, a Coldwell Banker Realtor in Manatee County who also blames red tide and the hyperactive 2005 hurricane season for scaring buyers away.
ReplyDelete"The red tide was terrible, I'd take people out to the beach and we'd all start coughing. They'd say, 'I'm not so sure I want to live so close to the water,'" Barnett said.
Red tide was one of things that kept me from buying near the Gulf in 1994. Yes, the view is beautiful but breathing is good too!
Mr. d. wrote: "I thought the dot.com bubble would end in 15 years of deflation and recession, like in Japan. I was obviously wrong."
ReplyDeleteThe Japanese were brought down by their property market and banking system...not the Nikkei. The dot.com bubble was hardly analogous.
The CURRENT bubble bears far more similarities to the Japanese bubble of the late 80's.
As for where you should invest? First, stop trying to predict the next bubble.
Personally, I think there is a lot of value in the U.S. stock market. Prices have been driven inordinately low by investors burned in 2000. I'm also betting on a fall in the dollar which will boost American exports. So my money has gone into exporters and consumer staples. I've also put money in broad international funds.
>"Industry insiders blame the shift in the local market in part on the flight of speculators and investors, estimated to have been as much as one-third of real estate players in recent years.<
ReplyDeleteIs this the part where the music stops and everyone races for a seat?
lato1394 said...
ReplyDeleteTom: I can't wait to buy your freind the mortgage broker's house and expensive toys when they go to auction. He is screwed along with all the other mortgage brokers who thought the glory days would never end.
If your a mortgage broker get ready to get hit with a double whammy... Thousands of mortgage brokers are not only loosing their source of income they are also watching the value of their houses slowly decline... Ouch. Its happening all over Florida too.
Actually a triple whammy...
Don't forget the flood of lawsuits coming to a broker near you. 'Yes Mr. Client, I believe we have a very strong case to bring a predatory lending suit against your broker.' Please sign here and we'll file our complaint tomorrow...
Enjoy!
I moved to S. Florida exactly 6 months ago. Thank G-d I moved into one of the last remaining rental communities in Coral Springs (Broward). I have been told by so many people that I was stupid not to buy because "you can get an interest only ARM for less than your rent". That's crazy! After a $400 deposit and one months rent @ $995 My small family and I moved into a nice, new, and clean 2/1.5 apartment. To buy an equivalent conversion would have cost us around 200k here. Unlike others here I actually enjoy living in S. Florida. The weather is great in the winter and everything is AC in the summer. Great beaches, nice nature areas (especially if you like birds) and good restaurants. Yes the traffic is bad, and the drivers can make you crazy. There was a thing a few months ago in W. Palm about two cars shooting at each other on I-95 while going 65mph in the daytime. But I digress. Now that the bubble is bursting I hope that more people in S. Florida will choose to wait it out rather than move back up north.
ReplyDeleteI moved to S. Florida exactly 6 months ago. Thank G-d I moved into one of the last remaining rental communities in Coral Springs (Broward). I have been told by so many people that I was stupid not to buy because "you can get an interest only ARM for less than your rent". That's crazy! After a $400 deposit and one months rent @ $995 My small family and I moved into a nice, new, and clean 2/1.5 apartment. To buy an equivalent conversion would have cost us around 200k here. Unlike others here I actually enjoy living in S. Florida. The weather is great in the winter and everything is AC in the summer. Great beaches, nice nature areas (especially if you like birds) and good restaurants. Yes the traffic is bad, and the drivers can make you crazy. There was a thing a few months ago in W. Palm about two cars shooting at each other on I-95 while going 65mph in the daytime. But I digress. Now that the bubble is bursting I hope that more people in S. Florida will choose to wait it out rather than move back up north.
ReplyDelete