Thursday, January 26, 2006

'How Much Prices Will Fall Is The Question' In DC

The Washington Post has this report on the DC market. "Real estate groups in the Washington area have reported declines to varying degrees. The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors, for example, said December sales were down about 24 percent from December 2004 in an area that includes Alexandria, Arlington and Fairfax counties. In Loudoun and Prince William counties, sales were down roughly 14 percent. Prince George's County sales fell about 5 percent." "The 5.7 percent drop in the sale of existing houses, townhouses and condos to an annual pace of 6.6 million units (nationwide) was steeper than many analysts had predicted and was the first time since March that it had fallen below 7 million. Peter Morici, an economist and business professor at the University of Maryland, had predicted the December sales figure would be 6.9 million units." "'Wow,' he said when he was told of the 6.6 million figure. 'Mortgage rates dipped a little in December, so I thought we were going to get a little bit of help from that. The housing bubble is pretty much over. We are in for an adjustment. The question is not will prices fall, because they have been falling, but how much prices will fall.'" "Candy Clanton, an associate broker in Fairfax, has seen just how much the landscape has changed over the past several months. She listed a four-bedroom house in Woodbridge, with new siding, windows and driveway as well as a renovated kitchen, for just under $350,000. It was among the least expensive in the neighborhood, Clanton said, but last week, after three months, her client took it off the market. 'I think the buyers who do have money..are all waiting to see what is going on,' she said. 'My phones are not ringing and my houses are not selling.'" "In a report yesterday, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the December figures suggest that 'housing market conditions are deteriorating rapidly.' The $7,000 drop in median home price from October to December, Goldman Sachs said, is the largest two-month drop in prices in years and must be taken seriously as a 'potential sign of a sharper-than-expected weakening in the U.S. housing market.'"

13 comments:

  1. 'I think the buyers who do have money..are all waiting to see what is going on,'

    Buyers are waiting to see how much $interest, $taxes, $maintenance $time etc. sellers are willing to burn through before they lower prices significantly.

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  2. Lawrence Yun, with a Ph.D. from the University of Maryland at College Park said "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero" according to this article at nvar.com.

    http://nvar.com/newsdetail.lasso?articleno=nvarn100608

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  3. Problem? The bubble bursting is the answer to the affordable housing crisis

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  4. Anyone have a link or the full text of the Goldman Sachs report?

    grim

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  5. DC proper has slowed too, but there is still activity. I don't know if it is a bounce or what, but people are doing transactions this month, IN DC PROPER.

    I certainly hope so because only if property sells can the discounts be locked in!

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  6. Another factor counterbalancing dropping prices in DC are the rising rents.

    A studio in the building I own is in near Dupong Circle is renting for what my one bedroom rented for two years ago.

    As prices rise, renting becomes less of an affordable option.

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  7. Rising rents could counterbalance falling sale prices in DC.

    In Dupont Circle a studio in the bulding I own in now is renting for what a 1 bedroom leased for two years ago.

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  8. Rents are not rising more than 3% a year AND the population is declining in D.C./Arlington/Alexandria. Check the census data.

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  9. "HA! As opposed to "SOLD" signs which, far from being an eye sore, are eye candy and support property values."

    ... or those incredibly obnoxious "GONE!" signs the realtors used to put up when houses sold within a week. haven't seen one of those in a LONG while.

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  10. rents aren't going up near dc. in NoVa, my rent is the same as it was in 2003. and the previous tenant (1999-2003) was paying $600 MORE per month than I pay.

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  11. actually dc bubble is still selling in dupont

    I rented out a one bedroom in dupont for $1350 two years ago

    now a smaller unit is renting for $1275 and the was a long line of applicants

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