Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
Existing Home Sales Continue Slide
The existing home sales numbers are out. "Sales of existing homes set a record for a fifth straight year in 2005 even though the year ended on a weaker note with three straight monthly declines, sending a strong signal that the nation's housing boom is beginning to cool."
"The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of previously owned homes and condominiums dropped by 5.7 percent in December compared to the sales pace in November. It marked the third consecutive monthly decline, something that has not occurred in more than three years."
The median for the US was $211,000, down from the October high of $218,000. Median prices in the west were down to $318,000 from Novembers $333,000. And even though inventory was down 4.4% from November, the 'months sales' figure climbed to 5.1.
The annual pace of sales fell to 6,600,000, from Novembers 7,000,000, and a high of 7,350,000 in June of 2005.
"'Clearly the air is coming out of the balloon,' David Lereah, chief economist at the Realtors' group, said. 'We're transferring from a sellers' market to a buyers' market.'"
"Home resales fell 11 percent in the West to 1.40 million. They were unchanged at 1.09 million in the Northeast. In the Midwest, sales fell 2.6 percent to 1.52 million, and they fell 7.2 percent in the South to 2.58 million. 'I have a lot of confidence that these balloons won't burst,' Lereah said. 'They're balloons, not bubbles.'"
Update: Inman News reports that excluding condos, the sales are worse. "Existing condominium and cooperative housing sales increased 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 877,000 units in December from a level of 863,000 in November. Last month's sales activity was 4.5 percent higher than the 839,000-unit pace in December 2004."
"Single-family home sales declined 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.72 million in December from 6.14 million in November, and were 4.2 percent lower than the 5.97 million-unit pace in December 2004."
Median Prices declining nationwide.
ReplyDeleteU.S.
August $220,000
December $211,000
Northeast
August $254,000
December $245,000
Midwest
Aug $176,000
December $173,000
South
Oct $195,000
December $182,000
West
November $333,000
December $318,000
Grim
Lingus,
ReplyDeleteThe non-seasonally adjusted numbers are available here..
December NAR EHS data
grim
'inventory was down 4.4% from November, the 'months sales' figure climbed to 5.1'
ReplyDeleteAnd as many have pointed out, inventory in some locales has jumped higher since the start of the year.
rudekarl,
ReplyDeleteAlso, a slower housing market is good for the big homebuilders, no?
Of course, these numbers are all national or regional. The numbers for many of the bubble markets are looking much worse.
ReplyDeleteDavid
Bubble Meter Blog
I think we're going to see a large spike in the January EHS Inventory.. 5.4 months inventory is my best guess.
ReplyDeletegrim
''Clearly the air is coming out of the balloon,' David Lereah, chief economist at the Realtors' group, said. 'We're transferring from a sellers' market to a buyers' market.'
ReplyDelete'I have a lot of confidence that these balloons won't burst,' Lereah said. 'They're balloons, not bubbles.'
CBSNews has this story 'Blogs Burst With Real Estate Buzz'
ReplyDeleteIt mentions some of the housing bubble blogs.
David
Bubble Meter Blog
Chart of INTC at it's bubble vs. TOL at the top it its bubble. Very amusing
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/8m3fb
rudekarl: NAR's statement is intended for year over year national home prices. The house bulls are still ahead on year over year appreciation. However, this will change later this year. Their sarcastic response will be, "Wow, I lost 10%, it really digs into my 100% gains. I hate you renters, even though I am still up $300K."
ReplyDeleteThe DJ_HOM index has been taking a beating. It's down nearly 10% in 10 trading days. I have been shorting this. :)
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteFrom the update:
ReplyDelete'Inman News reports that excluding condos, the sales are worse. "Existing condominium and cooperative housing sales increased 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 877,000 units in December from a level of 863,000 in November. Last month's sales activity was 4.5 percent higher than the 839,000-unit pace in December 2004.'
'Single-family home sales declined 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.72 million in December from 6.14 million in November, and were 4.2 percent lower than the 5.97 million-unit pace in December 2004.'
quick San Diego inventory note...
ReplyDeletePer zip realty:
Monday 1/23 15,668
Tuesday 1/24 15,715
Wednesday 1/25 15,802
Not huge percentage wise, but adding 134 properties in 3 days is not the direction to be heading.
SoCalMtgGuy
Another F@CKED Borrower
This morning one of the major radio news outlets in San Francisco began this item with something like: "speculator 'withdrawal' is having an impact on real estate an housing sales decline."
ReplyDeleteThe blurb was then finished with something like: "... and these numbers mean house prices are going to be effected in the Bay Area. A lot of buyers are going to like that."
A major media outlet!
Telling it like it is!
In the Bay Area!
About time!
(apologies for the exclamatory marks, but this is something I perhaps thought I might *never* see; I suppose things are changing enough, and quickly enough now, where all they have left to say is the obvious)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JOE&t=1y
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the summary, the latest related headline is:
"[$$] Housing's Just the Wrong Sector Right Now
at RealMoney by TheStreet.com"
Back around July, the headlines were:
"Bubbleheads, Admit Defeat By Housing
at RealMoney by TheStreet.com"
and:
"The Housing Bears Are Wrong Again" by Larry Kudlow, NRO Economics Editor.
Superimpose these comments on the above chart and marvel at the clairvoyance of mainstream financial commentators.