Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
California Existing Home Sales Fall 17%
The California realtors have this on Decembers' sales. "The median price of an existing home in California in December increased 15.6 percent and sales decreased 17.6 percent compared with the same period a year ago, C.A.R. reported today. C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in December 2005 was 3.6 months, compared with 2 months (revised) for the same period a year ago."
"Sales dropped 37.6 percent in Monterey County, 34.8 percent in the Monterey Region, 32.8 percent in Northern Santa Barbara County, 32.2 percent in the Sacramento area, 30.7 percent in Northern California, and 30.4 percent in Santa Cruz County from December 2004 to December 2005, the association reported."
And Broderick Perkins has this at Realty Times. "Some mortgage shoppers in the Golden State may be the first to be underwritten out of the home buying market. A data crunching company's new index, designed to help Californians choose less risky housing markets, says California lenders, fearing rising default risk levels, are already more closely scrutinizing mortgage applications."
"During the last six months of 2005, risk levels for new mortgages statewide increased an average 28.6 percent in the Golden State, according to San Juan Capistrano-based HomeSmartReports.com, which for the first time offered such data to the public."
"'The frenzy we saw in more coastal markets last year moved inland at the same time as interest rates were edging up. Some neighborhood sales patterns are showing signs of market stress, and buyers may be stretching their finances. Lenders are evaluating loan applications and appraisals much more carefully,' said Mike Ela."
"Ela said the problem is exacerbated by home builders developing large plots of homes and offering easy-money, no and very low-down payment financing to buyers stretching to become home owners. Home owners with no or small equity stakes in their homes are more likely to quit home ownership. 'The moment things get tough, people walk away from homes and you are left with an excess supply of homes,' Ela said."
"Even if it means putting a damper on the housing market, lenders have little choice but to curtail their risk. Jonathan Lansner a columnist with the Orange County Register said local lenders including New Century, Impac and Downey were experiencing smaller net interest margins, the gap between a banker's cost of money and income from loans, compared to the margins a year ago."
"The risk factor is lowest in coastal Southern California and the San Francisco Bay Area and highest in the rural Central Valley. The greatest increases came in the Salinas and Santa Cruz-Watsonville areas."
Be sure an look at the tables on the bottom of the CAR link. (What happened LA?)
ReplyDeleteCAR also put up these Dataquick numbers. It looks like a few YOY double digit declines are occurring.
Laguna Niguel off 24.5% yoy, in price. San Ysidro down 28%.
ReplyDeletelowtenant,
ReplyDeleteThat 15% is an annualized number, I believe.
"The risk factor is lowest in coastal Southern California..."
ReplyDeleteLOL. That's such a relief. Whew!
I've wondered for a long time what people around the south bay area do for a living that they can afford such places. My significant other says "Sell real estate to each other and teach each other yoga."
"The risk factor is lowest in coastal Southern California and the San Francisco Bay Area and highest in the rural Central Valley. The greatest increases came in the Salinas and Santa Cruz-Watsonville areas."
ReplyDeleteSalinas and Watsonville are (rather unappealing) farm towns that happen to be near the ocean. Think Bakersfield-By-The-Sea. Salinas has a pattern of having the greatest swings in value for the SF Bay Area during the housing cycle.
I myself would put Salinas at as much risk as Fresno, Bakersfield, etc. because the upward swing has been so great this time. A basic little house runs $500K, while it may be $250K in Fresno. Both economies are rooted in agriculture, so there's a lot less room for error in Salinas.
It's better to rent in heaven than own in hell.
I do see a few quakes in the Orange County data, as Ben pointed out. Laguna Nigel, Foothill Ranch.
ReplyDeleteLos Angeles County data still looks incredibly strong. The only chinks in the armour:
El Segundo is at virtually 0% change.
Marina Del Rey, north of El Segundo and Westchester (airport area), at -13.7%.
Tujunga, a non-beach city up against the foothills of the Angeles Crest National Forest, at -9.3%.
The major gains:
Studio City, which is near Universal Studios, up 61%.
San Dimas, a town out in the San Gabriel Valley, wedged in between Covina and LaVerne, up 46.9%. The last thing I remember about San Dimas was working a graveyard shift in a 7-11 there some time in the late 1970's, and hearing a rooster crowing in the morning.
Lawndale, the east neighbor of north Redondo Beach, and which has some slummy sections, is up over 40%.
Gardena is east of Lawndale and north Torrance and is up over 37%. Has some nice sections and some bad sections.
The steroids have not worn off this market yet.
South Bay Beaches Housing Bubble
bearmaster said:
ReplyDeleteI've wondered for a long time what people around the south bay area do for a living that they can afford such places. My significant other says 'Sell real estate to each other and teach each other yoga.'"
*********
LOL!
Same up north in Santa Cruz, Marin, Sonoma...
Funny.
"That's not even the worst of it. The worst part is that the rolling liquidity wave caused by the market will ruin the other housing markets in the other 49 states. If the Californians will buy up Bakersfield, they'll buy ANYWHERE."
ReplyDeleteSome of the greedy California speculators are buying in Texas. As they say "Don't Mess with Texas."
San Diego condos for everyone!!
ReplyDeleteI was not intending to bad-mouth San Dimas, only just to say that I had not been out there in a while. In high school I used to be out there a lot, as I commuted from Pomona to Glendora and had school friends in that general area.
ReplyDeleteI cannot imagine why San Dimas would be up 46%, other than the possibility that there are too few home sale numbers in that town to be statistically meaningful. If it is still like anything I remember it is a far better place than Lawndale or parts of Gardena, both towns being reported as having gone up almost as much. I could argue that the dumpiest parts of the south bay surged the most, because that's what people were able to "afford" (all being relative of course). I don't know anything about Studio City neighborhoods and I don't know what San Dimas is like these days. I wonder if you can still hear a rooster crowing...
privatebanker -
ReplyDeleteI was in San Diego in July and had much the same thinking as you - lots of dark and empty condos at night, many new condo towers being built, in not that great an area.
I suppose its all about the future - a distant one I suppose. I can only imagine what it would be like, or what it had been like, without the ballpark and some of those new classy hotels nearby.
Someday, perhaps soon, there's going to a huge "sale" for San Diego condos.