Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Appraisal Inflation 'Systemic', Process 'Broken'

The Broker Universe site has this editorial by William C. Apgar, the former Federal Housing Administration Commissioner and currently Senior Scholar at Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. "The American Dream of home ownership has become a reality for more people than anywhere on the globe. Lending money based on the securitization of loans backed by real estate has been the rock on which this phenomena has been built. Fundamental to this system is the fair, objective and unbiased valuation of the real estate that secures these loans and provides the confidence Americans have in the value of their home." "As it is not uncommon today for a lender to be on both sides of the equation, making the loan and picking the appraiser, the federal regulations seek to separate the appraisers' work from other aspects of the transaction. That is the idea, anyway, but not always the practice. In practice there are lenders that hire staff appraisers who are picked by and report to the lender's loan officers. Certain lenders and title companies own or are part owners in appraisal companies." "In May 2005..the regulators again issued guidelines, warning that financial institutions 'may not fully be recognizing the risk inherent in their aggressive lending standards.' In June, on the heels of this 'shot over the bow,' a nationally recognized consumer group..determined in their study 'problematic appraisal practices exist as a serious impediment to responsible lending, impede fair housing and equal access to credit, and place the American Dream of homeownership and the safety and soundness of the mortgage marketplace at risk.'" "Today, no one can accurately assess how many homes are overvalued in the U.S. housing market and for how much. There are those who argue that there is no such thing as appraisal inflation and therefore, no problem exists; if a buyer is willing to pay an asking price, then the price isn't inflated. True enough. But, when appraisal inflation becomes systemic to the loan process and when almost half of appraisers say they are pressured to inflate appraisals by others involved in the loan closing, then maybe it is time to change the way appraisals are ordered." "This is a time of transition for the mortgage marketplace. Economists agree that although there is no nationwide housing bubble there are 'regionalized bubbles' where housing prices seem to have risen to unsustainable levels and price declines have been predicted over the next two years. The mismatch between income gains and higher real estate values in some cities is particularly striking. How can someone earning $70,000 a year afford a $500,000 home? They can't over the long run." "This issue is systemic industry-wide, as the entire process from the regulators to the lenders to the third party interactions of the loan officers and the Realtors/builders is broken. It certainly will take a collaborative effort from the entire industry to unravel the pyramid of bad practices that have occurred over the past ten years."

10 comments:

  1. Thanks to the readers who sent in and posted this link.

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  2. from the professors link.

    'Scoggins warns that Las Vegas real estate investors should expect a lower rate of appreciation (at least compared to the red-hot pace of the last two years). 'But, this is not a collapse, it’s just Las Vegas growing pains. To those who bought homes at the tippy top of the market, I’m sorry. Those homes have dropped a little because they were overpriced. But, overall, prices are higher and higher year after year," Scoggins said.'

    'Las Vegas is more likely to be destroyed by fire and brimstone than have a collapse of housing prices,' Scoggins concluded.'

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  3. "It certainly will take a collaborative effort from the entire industry to unravel the pyramid of bad practices that have occurred over the past ten years."

    Try this: It will certainly take a collaborative effort from the entire industry to defend against the criminal investigations, the political wrath, and the class-action suits. However, staying out of jail and bankruptcy will be an individual problem for each of the evil-doers involved.

    It's Enron all over again.

    Also this sentence: "This issue is systemic industry-wide, as the entire process from the regulators to the lenders to the third party interactions of the loan officers and the Realtors/builders is broken."

    No sh*t, Sherlock. There will be hell to pay when this hits the public conciousness. Now that statements such as these are coming out, the liabiliy of the loan brokers and appraisers is being documented for consumption by the trial lawyers.

    Yikes!

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  4. "Las Vegas is more likely to be destroyed by fire and brimstone than have a collapse of housing prices,' Scoggins concluded."

    I'll give him this much: Las Vegas really has been a unique market, and the normal rules do not apply as they would anywhere else. As far as I know, there is no place quite like it in the world in terms of how its economy operates.

    But as LV grows, it becomes less and less unique, and becomes more and more like the Reno, Phoenix, and other similar desert towns. With the spread of Indian Gaming across the US, it no longer has a monopoly on gambling, and let's face it, no monopoly on cathouses or location-based entertainment. So LV is in fact vulnerable to corrections, maybe even serious ones. Denial is only the first phase, after all :-)

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  5. While I totally agree that the appraisals are out of whack....I do believe the appraiser is not for the BUYER's protection, but rather the bank's. If you think about it, especially in today's evnironment, the bank owns 95-100% of the home vs. the buyer's 0-5%.

    Now, if the bank acted rational they would look for "good deals" not just any deal. They know they can re-sell the loan no problem. So, I guess the real problem is that the banks, who are doing the loans aren't committed to the long term relationship. Imagine if they were, do you think we'd see 5% loans? Not without a 750 FICO. Would we see computerized appraisals...not with an 80% LTV.

    In a nutshell, the system is broken. In my life in corporate America you'd be surprised how many decisions are made not for the "right reasons" but whatever pays the rep the most.

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  6. capt. james,
    I don't know if you remember, but I did post a blurb from a collector mag about how a vintage car boom happened alongside the last property boom. That was last spring. Thanks for the link!

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  7. A link collection from Yahoo and Forbes about the housing "slowdown", underwater mortgages, etc.:


    The Housing Slowdown

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  8. "NAR President Thomas Stevens says he isn't worried that nearly half of first-time home buyers put no money down, but adds, "If the number was higher than that, I'd be concerned"

    What about those who put less then 5% down? There are certainly a lot of those.

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  9. "Can you, or someone here, point me to a good primer on credit derivatives and the role they play worldwide?"

    Ahh Grashoppah, when in doubt go to Wikipedia. You can find their article on Financial Derivatives right here. It links to an article wherein Buffet calls them a mega-catastrophic super-fantastic timebomb.

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